Retail Market Snapshot

Ireland entered Q3 with economic growth normalising after the exceptional multinational-driven performance of 2025. Forecast Modified Domestic Demand growth for 2026 has been upgraded from 2.1% to 3.7%, driven by stronger consumer spending, investment activity and AI-related capital expenditure. However, inflation expectations have increased due to higher energy costs associated with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Overall the domestic economy remains resilient, with underlying conditions remaining relatively stable, supported by stable employment, consumer spending and activity across key sectors. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to normalise, with GDP forecast to grow by 3.8% in 2027 and 3.4% in 2028. 

Consumer spending showed positive momentum over the summer, with retail activity strengthening in July 2026. Retail sales volumes increased by 1.3% during the month and were 2.2% higher year-on-year. Excluding Motor Trades, volumes rose by 0.8% month-on-month and 2.2% annually. The value of retail sales also increased, rising by 1.4% in July and 4.6% compared with July 2025. Performance across retail categories remained mixed throughout quarter 3. Motor Trades (+8.5%), Fuel (+7.0%) and Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles (+3.4%) recorded the strongest monthly volume growth, while declines were modest and largely confined to Department Stores (-1.3%), Books, Newspapers & Stationery (-0.3%) and Other Retail Sales (-0.1%). CSO Retail Sales Index, July 2026.

Looking ahead, activity is expected to accelerate during the final quarter of the year as several significant opportunities are brought to market. Notable live transactions include Westend Retail Park, launched by DWS with a guide price of €90 million, and Liffey Valley Retail Park, which is being offered for sale at a reported €58.5 million. Both assets are expected to attract substantial domestic and international investor interest and should contribute to a strong close to 2026 for the retail investment market. Market sentiment remains positive, supported by improving occupational fundamentals, resilient consumer spending, limited availability of prime retail stock and a growing pool of investors seeking income-producing assets with asset management and rental growth potential.

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